RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 31, 2021 01:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 07, 2021 04:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 70,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000 Answer was correct

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 07, 2021 04:50PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $470 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion Answer was correct

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 13, 2021 12:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 18, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 21, 2021 01:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7% Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 12% Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 23, 2021 05:20PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 26,000 Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 28, 2021 02:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.45% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95% Answer was incorrect
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2% Answer was incorrect
More than 1.2% Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 28, 2021 07:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 07, 2021 01:54PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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