INFER Public

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 05:49AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	67%	55%	+12%	-4%
No	33%	45%	-12%	+4%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 04:19AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 07:16AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
2024 Q1	1%	1%	+0%	0%
2024 Q2	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	1%	5%	-4%	-2%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	97%	94%	+3%	+2%
More than or equal to 3000	2%	0%	+2%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 07:44AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 07:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	2%	+3%	0%
No	95%	98%	-3%	0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 08:13AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 12:51PM UTC
(23 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	97%	99%	-2%	+0%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 12:52PM UTC
(23 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	91%	94%	-3%	+0%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	9%	5%	+4%	+0%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	0%

MCowley

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