Forecasted Questions
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2022 05:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 23, 2022 05:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 70% | 48% | +22% | +11% |
| Microsoft | 20% | 22% | -2% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 5% | 13% | -8% | -3% |
| Amazon | 5% | 10% | -5% | -5% |
| Tesla | 0% | 3% | -3% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2022 03:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 31, 2022 03:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2022 10:30PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 31, 2022 10:30PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 10% | 5% | +5% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 85% | 73% | +12% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 5% | 22% | -17% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2022 10:49PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 31, 2022 10:49PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 50% | 43% | +7% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% | 50% | 53% | -3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 10% | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:42PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 07:42PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Mar 31, 2024 07:43PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:43PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 07:43PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Mar 31, 2024 | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 07:43PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 07:43PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Jan 31, 2024 08:25PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:25PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 08:25PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 97% | +2% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Jan 31, 2024 08:36PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:36PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 31, 2023 08:36PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Dec 31, 2023 to Jun 30, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +1% |