INFER Public

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2020 10:26AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 26, 2020 04:03AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%		Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6%		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 27, 2020 05:46AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 07:23AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 4% inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%		Answer was incorrect
More than 8%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2020 06:16AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 16, 2020 05:18AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2020 02:29AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 04, 2020 01:55AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was correct
More than $500 million		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 01:19AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 06, 2020 02:11AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $190 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion		Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion		Answer was incorrect

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