YihChiaLam

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No longer active due to conflict of interest. Thanks!

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2024 Season Stats

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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 147
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 30
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 7
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?
YihChiaLam made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
No, $0 appropriated
2% (0%)
More than $0 but less than $1 billion
4% (0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $2 billion
7% (-7%)
More than or equal to $2 billion but less than $2.5 billion
85% (+7%)
More than or equal to $2.5 billion

Increasing confidence in the last bin

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New Prediction

Confirmed previous forecast

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New Prediction
Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?
YihChiaLam made their 5th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 21, 2022 06:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-3%)
Yes
Jun 21, 2022 to Dec 21, 2022
Decreasing due to passage of time
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New Prediction
In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?
YihChiaLam made their 5th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 19, 2022 01:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jun 19, 2022 to Dec 19, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?
YihChiaLam made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 50%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%
9% (0%)
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%
66% (+9%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%
24% (-9%)
More than or equal to 80%

.

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New Prediction
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
YihChiaLam made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
12% (0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
2% (-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
82% (+1%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova

.

Files
New Prediction
In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft?
YihChiaLam made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 15, 2022 02:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Jun 15, 2022 to Dec 15, 2022

Confirmed previous forecast

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New Prediction
From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?
YihChiaLam made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 200
93% (+9%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
5% (-9%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2% (0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 1000

Going almost all in for the 200-400 bin. 201 events in April 2022, 101 events in May 2022

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New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?
YihChiaLam made their 6th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2022 02:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jun 14, 2022 to Jul 14, 2022

Confirmed previous forecast

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