Confirmed previous forecast
0.533522
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 21, 2022 06:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-3%)
Yes
Jun 21, 2022 to Dec 21, 2022
Decreasing due to passage of time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 19, 2022 01:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 19, 2022 to Dec 19, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 50%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%
66%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%
24%
(-9%)
More than or equal to 80%
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
12%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
2%
(-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
82%
(+1%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 15, 2022 02:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 15, 2022 to Dec 15, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 200
93%
(+9%)
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
5%
(-9%)
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1000
Going almost all in for the 200-400 bin. 201 events in April 2022, 101 events in May 2022
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
Passage of time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 14, 2022 02:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 14, 2022 to Jul 14, 2022
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Increasing confidence in the last bin