Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2023 10:07PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 24, 2023 10:07PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2023 09:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 29, 2023 09:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -4% |
| No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +4% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 09:36PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 30, 2023 09:36PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 13% | +27% | -33% |
| No | 60% | 87% | -27% | +33% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2023 02:50PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 16, 2023 02:50PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 70% | 99% | -29% | +35% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 30% | 1% | +29% | -33% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2023 10:58PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 22, 2023 10:58PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | -4% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +4% |