INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 13, 2022 09:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	50%	48%	+2%	+12%
Microsoft	30%	22%	+8%	+4%
Alphabet (Google)	0%	13%	-13%	-3%
Amazon	0%	10%	-10%	-5%
Tesla	0%	3%	-3%	-3%
Meta (Facebook)	0%	1%	-1%	-3%
Other	20%	2%	+18%	+0%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2022 10:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 14%	0%	3%	-3%	-1%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive	0%	12%	-12%	-1%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18%	10%	31%	-21%	-3%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20%	55%	40%	+15%	+3%
More than 20%	35%	14%	+21%	+2%

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2022 08:23AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2022 06:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 13, 2022 03:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2022 08:41PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel	15%	16%	-1%	-3%
Samsung	65%	53%	+12%	-7%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)	20%	30%	-10%	+10%
Other	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2022 06:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2022 07:07PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5%	10%	5%	+5%	+1%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 7%	75%	73%	+2%	-1%
More than or equal to 7%	15%	22%	-7%	+0%