Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2023 10:25PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 30, 2023 10:25PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 4% | +4% | -7% |
| No | 92% | 96% | -4% | +7% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 03:53PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 03:53PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 14% | +66% | -39% |
| No | 20% | 86% | -66% | +39% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(30 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 03:54PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Aug 31, 2023 03:54PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 5% | +45% | -8% |
| No | 50% | 95% | -45% | +8% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 09:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 25, 2024 09:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |