Maximize the team forecast, why not?
1.680648
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
United States
100%
EU
0%
China
0%
United Kingdom
0%
None of the above
Files
New Prediction
How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?
Probability
Answer
0%
(-80%)
Less than 3
17%
(-3%)
Between 3 and 5, inclusive
67%
(+67%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
16%
(+16%)
Between 8 and 10, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than 10
Revised calc for base rate after re-reading question
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New Prediction
How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?
Probability
Answer
80%
Less than 3
20%
Between 3 and 5, inclusive
0%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
0%
Between 8 and 10, inclusive
0%
More than 10
Base rate, my copy of @MullenAustin 's sheet with some bucketing.
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Minimize team forecast