INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.007019
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.080587
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.069223
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.105529
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.023403
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	0.000468
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.006118
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC	How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?	-0.1074
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.153391
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.308218
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.120371
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.008587
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	-0.00187
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.1855
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023?	0.106317
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	0.011103
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.458404
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022)	-0.000629
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC	What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?	-0.024894
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.105783

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