Tensions are high and only increasing in the Red Sea so far. These tensions seem unlikely to lower in the forseeable future as both the Houthi rebels and US coalition forces escalate in their attacks.
0.015617
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 11, 2023 06:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
90%
No
Nov 11, 2023 to May 11, 2024
While normalization is not off the table; it is unlikely to occur so long as Israel is conducting military operations in the Gaza strip. Thus, normalization will likely have to wait until after the Gaza conflict which could take over a year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Less than 7%
50%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
25%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
0%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
More than or equal to 22%
Ukraine is slowly pushing Russia back, but its support in the West is fracturing and Ukraine is steadily running out of arms and supplies, hampering any potential future offensives.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
10%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
90%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
Iran doesn't trust the West and is fed up with its demands, especially as it finds more connections with China, Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Thus, it will be more likely to pursue its own agenda of nuclearization.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N?A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It wouldn't be in Iran's interest to be stigmatized by the world further by withdrawing from the deal.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Iran may find enough support from China/BRICS that it decides it doesn't need to pander to the West.
Files
He has held power for so long, and there is no ongoing crisis in Iran, meaning his regime is likely stable.