Forecasted Questions
Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jul 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 08:43PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 30, 2020 08:43PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 08:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 30, 2020 08:49PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% | Answer was correct | |||
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 39% | Answer was incorrect |
How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 08:53PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 30, 2020 08:53PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 6,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 | Answer was correct | |||
More than 12,000 | Answer was incorrect |
Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 09:00PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 30, 2020 09:00PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2020 09:05PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Jun 30, 2020 09:05PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 0.5% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% | Answer was correct | |||
More than 1.5% | Answer was incorrect |
How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2020 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 14, 2020 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 54,000 | Answer was correct |
Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2020 05:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Oct 14, 2020 05:44PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2020 03:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Nov 24, 2020 03:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 15% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 21% | Answer was incorrect |