Forecasted Questions
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 29, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024 | Jun 29, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 29, 2024 07:42AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 55% | -47% | -6% |
| No | 92% | 45% | +47% | +6% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Apr 01, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025 | Jul 1, 2024 | 10% | -5% | +7% |
| No | 95% | Apr 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025 | Jul 1, 2024 | 90% | +5% | -7% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:57PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:57PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 0% | 8% | -8% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 30% | 11% | +19% | -1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:57PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:57PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 44% | 2% | +42% | +0% |
| Oman | 46% | 2% | +44% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 50% | 5% | +45% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 4% | +86% | -1% |
| No | 10% | 96% | -86% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 4% | +31% | -1% |
| No | 65% | 96% | -31% | +1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Apr 17, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | Jul 17, 2024 | 7% | +8% | -2% |
| No | 85% | Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024 | Jul 17, 2024 | 93% | -8% | +2% |