HorribleHarry

Attacking Kharkiv would both make strategic sense, and be within reasonable Russian calculation of success. Russia seems likely to make the "attempt" - if for no other reason, than to tout some battlefield success near the border. It could very well be announced, with no intention of carrying through. It seems highly improbable that Russia would again attempt Kyiv, and risk a second defeat. As for Odesa, success would be an extremely small possibility, despite the huge importance to Putin's self-esteem.

Russia has its hands full with Free Ukraine.

An attack on Georgia would only be in response to an attempt by Georgia to reclaim its rightful territory. Russia has no cause to attack Armenia, except in the unlikely event it changes its own alliance towards the West. Kazakhstan has a small chance of such political unrest that Putin may be 'forced' to act, but that seems highly unlikely. In attack - an invasion - in Moldova seems at least a little more likely, in that a pretext exists already, but again, Russia has not had recent success of note in Ukraine; unless attacking Moldova gave Russia some unknown strategic advantage, it seems unlikely.

The 1% probability rounds up from .5%. The odds are slim of Putin invading these countries while Ukraine is still free (and it is!), and with these being NATO member states.

Ali Khamenei is 84-85 years old. Although a sister lived to 89, his likelihood of drying of natural causes is high at his age. He has had prior medical issues, though none is currently reported. Death by assassination or simple retirement seems highly unlikely, and being ;forced out is about a 0% chance..

Microsoft would not take such action without (1) a credible security threat,  (2) a security breach, (3) a directive from the U.S. government, or (4) some other clear economic interest that would outweigh its profit motive. I would count the probability of each of these at 3%, 6%, 5%, and 2%.  The highest risk is 6%.