Update
-0.000287
Relative Brier Score
26
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 16, 2024 08:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(-13%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
83%
(+13%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
update
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 16, 2024 08:34AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+5%)
Yes
20%
(-5%)
No
Slight increase in chance due to USVP stating openly that she wishes there to be an immediate stop to the fighting.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2024 10:44AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(+25%)
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
70%
(-25%)
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Iranian elections are in March. There may be protests after the results are cast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Iranian government might be able to supress any unrest by turning off the internet and/or mobile network - making organised protest difficult to organise.
Files
Updating to follow concensus