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How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 19, 2020 03:17AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 6,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000 Answer was correct
More than 12,000 Answer was incorrect

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 22, 2020 01:06PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 23, 2020 03:37AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.5% Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% Answer was correct
More than 1.5% Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 06, 2020 02:56AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $190 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 06, 2020 03:29AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 06, 2020 03:37AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 06, 2020 04:19AM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 20, 2020 09:10AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 06, 2020 11:40AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5% Answer was incorrect
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