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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2021 02:09PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 44% 35%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2021 04:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2022 08:18AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 1% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 12% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 33% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 37% 40%
More than 20% 17% 14%

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2022 01:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 05, 2024 11:02AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
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