INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:19PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	17%	-8%	+4%
No	91%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	83%	+8%	-4%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	95%	+2%	+0%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	10%	+0%	+0%
No	90%	Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024	May 20, 2024	90%	+0%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	14%	-6%	-1%
No	92%	86%	+6%	+1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	57%	55%	+2%	-4%
No	43%	45%	-2%	+4%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
No	96%	96%	+0%	+0%