max-daniel

Max Daniel
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Project Manager for the Research Scholars Programme at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 05, 2020 05:46PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% Answer was incorrect
More than 39% Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 06, 2020 05:57PM UTC
(4 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $300 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 24, 2020 07:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was correct
More than $500 million Answer was incorrect

What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 24, 2020 07:42PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.3 Answer was incorrect
Between 0.3 and 0.6, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 0.6 but less than or equal to 0.9 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.9 but less than or equal to 1.2 Answer was correct
More than 1.2 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 24, 2020 08:08PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 3% Answer was incorrect
Between 3% and 5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 7% Answer was incorrect
More than 7% but less than or equal to 9% Answer was correct
More than 9% Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 13, 2020 05:26PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2020 05:53AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 05, 2020 08:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5% Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 05, 2020 08:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $400 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion Answer was correct

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 05, 2020 08:34PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 54,000 Answer was correct
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