INFER Public

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2020 07:19PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was correct
More than $500 million		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 20, 2020 04:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was incorrect
Between 3% and 5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7% but less than or equal to 9%		Answer was correct
More than 9%		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2020 05:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2020 05:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $300 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion		Answer was correct
More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $750 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2020 11:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2020 11:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2020 11:51AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2020 11:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $190 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion		Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2020 11:55AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2020 11:57AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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