Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2024 03:24AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 14, 2024 03:24AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 56% | -7% | +15% |
| No | 51% | 44% | +7% | -15% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 14, 2024 03:39AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 8% | -7% | -9% |
| No | 99% | 92% | +7% | +9% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 05:05AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 05:05AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 20% | 9% | +11% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 50% | 11% | +39% | -5% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 05:51AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 05:51AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 99% | 99% | +0% | +23% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 1% | 1% | +0% | -22% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 06:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 06:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 8% | 95% | -87% | +47% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 67% | 5% | +62% | -42% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 25% | 0% | +25% | -3% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 06:17AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 95% | +4% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 06:19AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 06:19AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +2% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 04, 2024 08:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 04, 2024 08:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 4% | +46% | -7% |
| No | 50% | 96% | -46% | +7% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 04, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 04, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 0% | 6% | -6% | -13% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 90% | 94% | -4% | +20% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 10% | 0% | +10% | -5% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2024 05:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 05, 2024 05:01AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 5% | +15% | -2% |
| No | 80% | 95% | -15% | +2% |