Late update.
0.025259
Relative Brier Score
510
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 28 | 30 | 564 | 133 | 2455 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 93 |
| Questions Forecasted | 28 | 29 | 78 | 36 | 200 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 172 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-4%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
96%
(+4%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
95%
(-4%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Updating.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirming for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(+6%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Updating late.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirming for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirming my previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
Unlikely, but possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
Confirming for the next month.
Files