INFER Public

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:35PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:45PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $40 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $12 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $12 billion and $16 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $16 billion but less than or equal to $20 billion		Answer was correct
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $24 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $24 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:50PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.3		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.3 and 0.6, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.6 but less than or equal to 0.9		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.9 but less than or equal to 1.2		Answer was correct
More than 1.2		Answer was incorrect

How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:54PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million		Answer was incorrect
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was correct
More than $500 million		Answer was incorrect

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 03:58PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 04:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was correct
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $500 million and $800 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $800 million but less than or equal to $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 04:03PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%		Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6%		Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 04:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500		Answer was correct
More than12,500		Answer was incorrect

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