Russia has already attacked Kyiv with missiles/drones without reaching this level of injuries/casualties; I don't think Russia has the necessity to attack Kyiv in the following months.
-0.787226
Relative Brier Score
20
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
updated to 0; the question is going to close in 11 hours.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
One more day
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In this timeframe only Moldova is possible, considering that the others would represent a much larger military operation