INFER Public

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2020 02:11AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2020 07:31PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2020 04:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Zero		Answer was correct
One		Answer was incorrect
Two or more		Answer was incorrect

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2021 04:04AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 70,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 18, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2021 10:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%		Answer was correct
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 16, 2021 10:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2021 03:02PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion		Answer was correct
More than $775 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2021 02:43AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $470 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion		Answer was correct

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 01, 2021 03:27AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2021 01:31AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Samantha

About: