Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?

Started Jun 15, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Generative AI is transforming the entertainment industry and bringing AI-powered text-to-video tools to the masses (Fortune, Mpost). An AI text-to-video film won the Jury Award at Cannes in 2023 (Nextweb). 

Resolution Criteria:
The film, episode, or series must be at least 20 minutes in length, and whether or not a film or episode was AI-generated will be determined using official credits, statements by the humans involved in making it, and/or reputable news media reports. The use of non AI-generated video input into an AI-generator would still count (e.g., The Crow). Having AI-generated components in only a few scenes, for background images, or parts of the video will not suffice (e.g., Dog and Boy). A film or episode consisting of a series of still images will count as long as text-to-video technology was used to create them. A film or episode written by AI (e.g., ChatGPT) but otherwise created using traditional production methods would not count.

Question clarification
Issued on 06/30/23 06:17pm
Marvel’s "Secret Invasion” on Disney+ included AI-generated opening credits (The Guardian). As stated in the resolution criteria, "Having AI-generated components in only a few scenes, for background images, or parts of the video will not suffice,” so this does not count towards the resolution of this question.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 278
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012029
2.
-0.006627
3.
-0.002983
4.
-0.002914
5.
-0.002753

Consensus Trend

Files
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