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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
75
·
239
10%
Chance
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
67
·
91
2%
Chance
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Closing
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
66
·
279
4%
Chance
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
65
·
313
10%
Chance
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Closing
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
65
·
144
6%
Chance
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
64
·
268
2%
Chance
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
63
·
175
81%
Chance
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
62
·
546
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
61
·
227
6%
Chance
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Closing
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
59
·
140
18%
Chance
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