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International Diplomacy & Conflict
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months)
From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Closing
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
65
·
137
6%
Chance
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
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55
·
347
2%
Chance
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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62
·
77
2%
Chance
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
65
·
306
10%
Chance
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
·
42
·
370
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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62
·
534
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Closing
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
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46
·
397
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
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86
·
558
4%
Chance
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
91
·
486
4%
Chance
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