Confirmed previous forecast
0.00789
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 73 | 13 | 377 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 52 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 58 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 75 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Kuwait
32%
(0%)
Oman
16%
(0%)
Qatar
65%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
16%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 11:14PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
22%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
11%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 09:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Kuwait
32%
(0%)
Oman
16%
(0%)
Qatar
65%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
16%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 09:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files