Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 4% | -3% | +1% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 95% | +4% | -1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 hours from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 47% | 1% | +46% | -2% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 60% | 91% | -31% | +43% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 22% | 8% | +14% | -38% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 11% | 0% | +11% | -4% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 7% | 0% | +7% | -1% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 01, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 01, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 32% | 2% | +30% | +0% |
Oman | 32% | 2% | +30% | -1% |
Qatar | 16% | 2% | +14% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 65% | 5% | +60% | -1% |
Tunisia | 16% | 1% | +15% | +0% |