Carranza

Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 47% 1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 09, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 60% 91%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 22% 8%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 11% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 7% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 01, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 32% 2%
Oman 32% 2%
Qatar 16% 2%
Saudi Arabia 65% 5%
Tunisia 16% 1%
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