INFER Public

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Jan 7, 2022 08:46AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2021 08:46AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2022 01:19AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2022 07:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2022 09:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before January 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022		Answer was correct
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022		Answer was incorrect
Not before October 1, 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2022 12:22AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Aug 26, 2022 12:22AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2022 12:22AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies?

As of Jul 3, 2022 12:48AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 29, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 03, 2022 12:48AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 09, 2022 10:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Aug 21, 2022 02:56AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 21, 2022 02:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 27, 2022 09:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

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