7th
Accuracy Rank

Columbus

Dirk Bleese
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2023 Season Stats

-0.569

Relative Brier Score

867

Forecasts

118

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 84 888 867 1848
Comments 0 1 39 39 133
Questions Forecasted 8 30 68 61 121
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 7 118 118 167
 Definitions
New Prediction
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
Columbus made their 28th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
71% (+2%)
Less than 6,000
29% (-2%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 9,000

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Columbus made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (+0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
16% (-14%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
66% (+0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
18% (+14%)
More than or equal to 3000

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
Columbus made their 27th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
69% (+2%)
Less than 6,000
31% (-2%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 9,000

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?
Columbus made their 26th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
67% (+2%)
Less than 6,000
33% (-2%)
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 9,000

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Columbus made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
53% (-4%)
Less than or equal to 499
47% (+4%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 2000

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
Columbus made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50% (-3%)
Less than or equal to 24
40% (+3%)
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
8% (+0%)
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
2% (+0%)
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 55

Tweaking

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Columbus made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (+0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5% (+0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95% (+0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Columbus made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
43% (+0%)
Less than or equal to 49
50% (+0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
7% (+0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (+0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Time

Files
Files
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