INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:50AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2024 08:35AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	94%	97%	-3%	+8%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	6%	3%	+3%	-8%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:51AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	55%	+20%	-6%
No	25%	45%	-20%	+6%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

As of Apr 1, 2024 08:52AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024	Jun 17, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:54AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	6%	4%	+2%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	94%	95%	-1%	+1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:02AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Mar 20, 2024 to Sep 20, 2024	Jun 20, 2024	8%	+0%	+0%
No	92%	Mar 20, 2024 to Sep 20, 2024	Jun 20, 2024	92%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:02AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	85%	90%	-5%	+16%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	15%	9%	+6%	-13%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:03AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
No	96%	96%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:03AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	-3%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:04AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?

You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:06AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Columbus

Dirk Bleese

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