INFER Public

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

As of Jun 8, 2024 09:40PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 02, 2024 07:48PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Jun 2, 2024 to Dec 2, 2024	Jul 2, 2024	1%	+3%	-1%
No	96%	Jun 2, 2024 to Dec 2, 2024	Jul 2, 2024	99%	-3%	+1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

As of Jun 8, 2024 09:40PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 02, 2024 07:49PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Jun 2, 2024 to Dec 2, 2024	Jul 2, 2024	2%	+1%	-2%
No	97%	Jun 2, 2024 to Dec 2, 2024	Jul 2, 2024	98%	-1%	+2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 07, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	8%	13%	-5%	-1%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	8%	6%	+2%	+1%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2024 10:18PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	96%	+3%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 11, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
No	100%	97%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 13, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2024 09:45PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

DKC

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