Moderating as there is no news
0.064317
Relative Brier Score
174
Forecasts
24
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 18 | 318 | 174 | 1167 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 174 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 14 | 61 | 36 | 175 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 35 | 24 | 234 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(-4%)
Yes
Jul 24, 2024 to Aug 24, 2024
93%
(+4%)
No
Jul 24, 2024 to Aug 24, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 21, 2024 to Jan 21, 2025
89%
(0%)
No
Jul 21, 2024 to Jan 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
29%
(0%)
Yes
71%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 24%
6%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
74%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
20%
More than or equal to 28%
Agree with other forecasters on a continued growth trajectory for the Americas for next year - the segments forecasted to grow faster, integrated circuits and memory, are mostly related to the AI boom for which the Americas are relatively well positioned.
Files
New Comment
If MS has this situation with Azure - GPT4, something similar could be said for its AI Lab:
In this case, OpenAI, a startup with no sales quota, is more comfortable leaving a market for non-revenue reasons, including national security as mentioned earlier. Microsoft, which currently has five Azure regions in China, can hardly do the same. Here’s Kevin Xu:
As a massive global organization where every region carries an ambitious sales quota, Microsoft’s Azure team saw OpenAI’s exit in China as not a signal to do the same, but an opportunity (at least in the short term) to gain revenue and fill that quota.
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/openai-pulls-the-plug-on-china
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(+2%)
Yes
Jul 18, 2024 to Aug 18, 2024
89%
(-2%)
No
Jul 18, 2024 to Aug 18, 2024
upping slightly again. Interesting article that signals US pressure as a major reason for sour relations:
A rift with Washington over Iraq’s ties to Iran, were a rift to occur, could lead Iraq back to isolation within the Arab camp. Iraq expects to take a large step in its reintegration into the Arab world by hosting the next Arab summit in the spring of 2025, after the Arab League approved Baghdad’s bid to host the event.
IntelBrief: Baghdad Works Through a Multiplicity of Challenges
https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-july-16/
Files
Market downturn today has affected NVDIA more than other leaders such as Apple. AI demand in the end-market remains a long goal.