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Hobbes

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 31, 2021 09:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2021 10:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 31, 2021 06:15PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was incorrect
More than 80% Answer was correct

Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 31, 2021 06:15PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 31, 2021 06:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 31, 2021 06:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Dec 30, 2021 02:36PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 30, 2021 02:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 24, 2022 08:17AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 27, 2022 10:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Before 1 April 2022 Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022 Answer was incorrect

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 16, 2022 11:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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