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Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Sep 8, 2022 07:25PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2022 07:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 10, 2022 06:04PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 10, 2022 06:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 10, 2022 06:05PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 10, 2022 06:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2022 07:34AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2022 01:14PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 10:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $320 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $320 billion but less than or equal to $350 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $350 billion and $380 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $380 billion and $410 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $410 billion		Answer was correct

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 10:21PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion		Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 10:28PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $25 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $55 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 10:49PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?

As of Jan 29, 2023 02:17AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2022 02:17AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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