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Hobbes

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2022 02:19AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2022 02:19AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2022 02:19AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2022 02:21AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 200 billion Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 500 billion Answer was incorrect

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 29, 2022 02:23AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

As of Feb 4, 2023 03:05AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 04, 2023 03:05AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 31, 2023 12:55AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 26, 2023 08:16PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 20, 2023 01:04PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Mar 24, 2023 03:01PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Japan Answer was correct
The Netherlands Answer was correct
South Korea Answer was incorrect
Any other country not listed Answer was incorrect
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