Confirmed previous forecast
0.240507
Relative Brier Score
156
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 15 | 409 | 156 | 983 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 15 | 67 | 34 | 145 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 67 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
3%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
There's no strong incentive to leave. In practice they've already "left" it, and doing it formally would only result in more problems (such as sanctions) with other countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(+5%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Jun 29, 2025
83%
(-5%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Jun 29, 2025
A year is a long time! Given that Israel and U.S. leadership might change in the next 12 months, lots of things could happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files