72nd
Accuracy Rank

Jeroen

Jeroen
About:
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0.45191

Relative Brier Score

131

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 32 498 131 958
Comments 0 0 12 2 31
Questions Forecasted 11 23 74 30 141
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 31 7 66
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
3% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025
88%
No
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025

I'm only increasing the odds slightly over my 6-month forecast, as Netanyahu may not be in power anymore and if they don't start a war in the next 6 months, they likely wont start one in the 6 months after either.

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New Prediction
Jeroen
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
90%
No
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

While there's some chance of Israel declaring war on Hezbollah in the next six months due to escalating tensions and the invasion in Gaza, it's not very likely. A lack of sufficient soldiers, a military exhausted from the conflict in Gaza, and the risk of a regional escalation all hinder Israel's ability to start a full-scale war. Moreover, Hezbollah's military capabilities make them a tough opponent, further deterring Israel from taking such drastic action.

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