INFER Public

How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 19, 2022 07:06AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 billion but less than 300 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 300 billion but less than 400 billion		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 billion but less than 500 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 500 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2022 04:52AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion		Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2022 04:55AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $25 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion but less than or equal to $35 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $55 billion		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2022 04:57AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $8.5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $8.5 billion but less than or equal to $10 billion		Answer was correct
Between $10 billion and $11.5 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $11.5 billion and $13 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $13 billion		Answer was incorrect

In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 21, 2022 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2022 01:51PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%		Answer was correct
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 15%		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

As of Feb 11, 2023 04:00PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 11, 2023 04:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2023 01:53PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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