23rd
Accuracy Rank

ScottEastman

Scott Eastman
About:
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-0.130627

Relative Brier Score

102

Forecasts

59

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 8 27 231 102 264
Comments 6 18 134 67 170
Questions Forecasted 8 18 38 26 45
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 15 145 59 179
 Definitions
New Prediction
ScottEastman
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100% (+1%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 3000

All in on 2250-2999 given timeframe  and no radical change.

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Reducing to 0 for passage of time and the comment that there are no leaks of any imminent changes. The crowd is very high at 11 considering the time remaining. It is not a proper time decay from earlier forecasts.

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Why might you be wrong?

An announcement is a low bar.

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New Prediction
ScottEastman
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (-2%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10% (-11%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?

I'm lowering both for the passage of time and Russia's continuing needs for their invasion of Ukraine. @cmeinel brought up an important point regarding training. Iran does not currently fly SU-35's or use S400 and S500 systems, so their people would need to be trained, most likely before delivery. 

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Why might you be wrong?

If the likelihood of a major Israeli attack on Iran greatly increases, and if the S-400 or S-500's would be effective in limiting the damage, more pressure may be put on Russia to send the missiles and possibly even have them operated by Russians "contractors". I consider this very unlikely. 

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New Prediction

Time is nearly out and nothing significant has changed. I should have zeroed earlier.

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New Prediction

Reducing Odesa to 1. It would require a total collapse of the Ukrainian military for this to happen and an abandonment by neighboring countries.

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New Prediction
ScottEastman
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (+5%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
92% (-5%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024

Upping based on the analysis by @DKC . As she mentioned, there are several moving parts. President Biden alluded to working on initiatives in the region beyond Gaza in his commencement address at Moorehouse College today. 

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New Prediction
ScottEastman
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
95% (0%)
No
May 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025

The president and foreign minister of Iran are missing and appear to have gone down in a helicopter crash in northern Iran. The search has been going for 5 hours. At this moment we have no idea whether they are fine, injured, or dead. If the president has passed away, the vice president is to become president and elections are to take place within 6 months. At this point everything is speculation. The weather in the area is bad with low visibility.  PressTV (Official Iranian site) is listing it as a "hard landing" but there is no word of communication with the helicopter. https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/05/19/725861/Iran-President-Raeisi-hard-landing-helicopter-East-Azarbaijan PressTV is an official Iranian site. Here is a link that includes a video part way down the page of Khomeini mentioning the helicopter crash and calling for prayers: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/05/19/725879/Leader-prays-for-safe-return-of-president-after-helicopter-incident-

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

<0.5%. Lack of time and attention is in Kharkiv Oblast and Odessa. Attacking infrastructure less consequential in summer than winter. 

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Why might you be wrong?

If Ukraine drops the Kerch Bridge or makes some other spectacular operation, including the possibility of continuing attacks inside the internationally recognised borders of Russia, a massive missile strike against Kyiv could be a response. The need for systems such as Patriots in the Kharkiv region may reduce the priority for defending Kyiv airspace. I would not expect a reduction in air defense, but new systems are more likely to be sent elsewhere. 


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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I am increasing from 18 to 26 on Kharkiv. This is still far below the crowd. Attempting to capture Kharkiv is a bad idea, but Putin has already proven that he makes bad decisions. It is more likely that Russia will try to get within 25 miles of Kharkiv in order to be able to shell the city with artillery and with inexpensive rockets such as Grads. This would not succeed in capturing the city but could cause such chaos that it would result in a mass evacuation and the commitment of a significant portion of Ukrainian troops. Since Putin does not some overly concerned with his own troop losses, this could be a net victory for him even if his troops do not set foot in the city this year. 

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Why might you be wrong?

I understand the political ramifications, but the fact that Ukraine has not called for a mobilisation of people under 25 means that they are still not on an absolute existential war footing. Even if they don't have the weapons and ammunition to support a larger military, requiring at least a basic level of training to all men (and women?) over 17 or 18 seems logical. If the number of fighting eligible people is not significantly increased, Russia can use this opening to send wave after wave at Kharkiv until it eventually falls and in the process, face significantly reduced opposition in the south. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I'm increasing from 7 to 18% for Kharkiv. It appears Russia has not made captured significant territory North of Kharkiv, but the distance from Kharkiv to the border is small. My interpretation is that a major ground offensive would tanks and infantry near the city limits. 

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Why might you be wrong?

It could make sense for Russia to send "meat waves" at Kharkiv as a diversion, even if they don't think they can capture the city. It is a priority for Ukraine to defend Kharkiv, and could draw many soldiers away from the rest of the frontlines, compromising their defensive capabilities in the south. 

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