ScottEastman

I'm increasing from 7 to 18% for Kharkiv. It appears Russia has not made captured significant territory North of Kharkiv, but the distance from Kharkiv to the border is small. My interpretation is that a major ground offensive would tanks and infantry near the city limits. 

In the last 15 days the price has dropped 1/3 of 1 percent from $284.5 to $283.5. its intraday price has not exceeded $287 during this period. This is remarkably steady. The price would have to increase by >350% in the next 7.5 weeks. Anything short of major war with China will not yield such an increase. 

Russia doesn't have the forces to mount a successful ground offensive on Kyiv. I'm significantly below the median on Kharkiv and Odesa. Russia needs to cross Dnipro river, conquer Kherson and Mykolaiv, travelling advancing more than 200 KM for a ground assault. Odesa is the last major city before the borders the Republic of Moldova and of Romania (NATO country). Today, Romania said it is considering sending a Patriot system to Ukraine. This is significant in that Romania previously Romania has stayed silent about its substantial military support for Ukraine. Kharkiv is in a more difficult situation because it is close to the border with Russia and much further from any allied countries. As the second largest city in Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russia would succeed in capturing it, but an attack would draw considerable numbers of Ukrainian forces to its defense, leaving the rest of the front lines with reduced capabilities. If Putin wants to continue a meat grinder war of attrition, Kharkiv could be a tempting target, but his forces still have considerable distance to cover. FPV drones and the soon to arrive F16s will further complicate the possibility of a rapid advance. Putin has moved Russian industry to a war footing but has so far avoided a mass mobillization that would be useful for a successful attack on Kharkiv.  

Maintaining 0,0,0,99,1. As per the last comment by @PeterStamp only the last two bins remain. With 2274 as the last update on May 3rd, the final bin is extremely unlikely, especially since the elections are still a couple of months away. I would go a little higher on the final bin if we were in the month of the election nor its immediate aftermath. 

Kharkiv is ~30 km from the border with Russia to the north and ~100km from the frontlines to the east. Attacking from the north would involve the Bolgorod region and likely draw a significant Ukrainian response against targets in and around the city of Bolgorod. Putin could use such a move to rally Russians to fight to protect their homeland, but it would be a high stakes move because it would further show that his invasion of Ukraine has brought the war to Russia, rather than security. Attacking from the East is possible, but 100km is a large amount of territory to conquer based on the current state of drone warfare and the aid that the US, the UK, and Germany, have now approved. 

The base rate is zero, but with an N of only 26 (months since the Feb 24th mass invasion) it is not enough to confidently go below 1% with nearly a month left. The attack that killed 53 people on the 13th of December, 2023 was when there were already Patriot and other anti/missile anti/drone systems in place. The warning systems as well as the behavior of the population to seek shelter during missile alert times is unlikely to have significantly changed since that attack. Heading into the summer months there may be less for Russia to gain by attacking infrastructure in and around Kyiv since heating is not an issue until the late fall. Germany has provided an additional Patriot system to Ukraine, but I don't know if it is being used in Kyiv. The number of missile interceptors is finite.

I'm increasing from 1% to 2%. @DKC posted about the possibility of the US and Saudi Arabia doing a direct agreement regarding security, a civilian nuclear program, and AI cooperation. This would cut Israel out of the deal. With the current state of the war and sentiments in Jerusalem and Gaza, moving towards a 2 State solution seems unlikely in the near future. The US is putting pressure for Israel not to attack Rafah, but as long as hostages are still held and the core of Hamas remains, it is will be extraordinarily difficult for Israel to cease operations for more than a brief pause. The move to by the US to bypass Israel in a possible deal with SA is a sign that they see the US does not see a quick resolution to the conflict. The incentives for SA to resume the normalization process with Israel are too low as long as the humanitarian catastrophe continues.