ScottEastman

It is highly likely that Netanyahu will never accept a two-state solution. The Israelis will need to decide to form a new government for this to be implemented. There is growing pressure from the US and Israelis to at least call a pause in exchange for the release of hostages and the return of bodies. Until now, Netanyahu has presented some reasonable roadblocks that have to do with the security of Israel, such as control over the border zone in Gaza with Egypt, but also generally did not want a deal that stopped the fighting, since Hamas still maintains some strength, not all of the leaders have been killed, and a substantial portion of the tunnel system is in tact. Netanyahu also faces the possibility of losing power and facing jail time once the active fighting ceases. The pressure from the families of the hostages has increased. The military has expressed views that continued fighting won't significantly change the situation on the ground. International pressure is increasingly against Israel. 

Decreasing to 1% based on the election of Massed Pezeshkian as President. By Iranian standards he is a relative moderate. Another factor is President Biden withdrawing from the race and VP Kamala Harris being the presumptive Democratic nominee. She has a  much grater chance of winning the election than Biden did, and is likely to be more moderate towards Iran than Trump. It may be overly optimistic to think that negotiations with Iran can begin in the next year, but a reduction of tensions is possible, depending on how the wars in Gaza and the conflicts in the West Bank, with Hezbollah on the Israeli/Lebanese border play out. Ali Khamenei is still the key decision maker and he has been a consistent backer of proxy wars, but avoided full scale conflicts directly with Iran. This has been born out by the limited strike against a US base in Iraq following the killing of IRGC chief Soleimani, the brief conflict with Pakistan in the border following the terrorist attacks on the shrine and burial place of Soleimani, the stand down from hostilities following the killing of three US soldiers by a drone strike in Jordan, and the response to Israeli striking the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, and lack of response following Israel's retaliation for Iran's massive but well telegraphed missile volley. All of these incidents showed aggression, but quickly followed by a desire to stand down and avoid escalation. I am not sure who they could realistically declare war against. Armenia is not a threat. Pakistan is a nuclear power with a much larger population and a powerful military, though the Balochistan region is unstable. Iran already has significant control in Iraq. Israel is Iran's enemy, but they share no borders, and a declaration of war only gives Israel the green light to bomb any military and nuclear targets that they want. 

I would doubt that the US wants to make any moves during the presidential election. Even though Harris is not the current president, anything President Biden does will be linked to her. Any type of public negotiations will be perceived as appeasement while Iran continues to support the Houthis in Yemen, that recently attacked and killed a person in Tel Aviv, and Iran continues to support Hamas and Hezbollah. In times of relative calm, the gains from reducing the risk that Iran will become a nuclear state may outweigh the threat of reducing sanctions, thus helping their economic situation, including ability to fund proxies. In the hot wars that are currently occurring in Gaza and the risk of a massive escalation with Hezbollah, this is a non-starter. In the aftermath of the US elections if the Democrat (Harris) wins, there may be room for negotiation.

Pezeshkian is a relative moderate by Islamic Republic of Iran standards. That Khamenei allowed him to run for the presidency shows some moderation, likely to ease tensions on the street. Iran already feels burned by Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA, but a pragmatic view may be that if Trump is defeated at the ballot box, he is unlikely to return to power even in 2028 (age and court cases). Skepticism will still exist. Khamenei is still the person in control. In his early life he was imprisoned by the SAVAK (the internal police of the Shah) and tortured. He see the West and particularly the US and UK as the backers of the Shah and essentially the backers of his own torture, even if his current government also uses widespread detention torture, and executions. This makes it more difficult for him to ease relations with the US, but he did show a willingness to move forward during the JCPOA. This may be enough for Khamenei and Pezeshkian to hold off from going to enriching uranium beyond 90%, but is not a time that they are likely to reduce their current stockpile. The time period in the US after the presidential elections is too short for negotiations to occur and reach a conclusion - if that is even possible.

Decreasing due to new President even though the power still lies with Khamenei. The vote was a sign that the people want some degree of moderation. Khamenei allowed Massoud Pezeshkian to run and appeared to want to tone the pressure inside the country.  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-irans-khamenei-elevated-little-known-moderate-presidency-2024-07-18/

Decreasing further due to difference between enriching to 90% and the IAEA discovering and reporting it. 

Rising based on this article from 3 days ago that gives solid business and political reasons for Huawei to make the move. https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-expected-to-take-open-ran-step-to-stay-in-germany

I looked at 6 forecasters whom I have high trust in and have excellent records and their forecasts range from 13 to 27%. The rationale that the US and Europe have restrictions on China will increase the difficulty of adoption.  A Trump/Vance victory could further decrease the odds considering that Vance is virulently anti-CCP government. The election is currently in a tumultuous state until we see Biden step down and get through the Democratic convention, likely with a new candidate and VP nominee.  

Why? Why did Russia hit the largest children's hospital in Ukraine, in Kyiv today. There is video of the cruise missile fully intact flying into the building - so it is not credible to say that it was aimed at some military target and only hit the hospital due to being intercepted. I did frame analysis on the video. NATO meets in DC tomorrow. This will boost public opinion and political support to increase funding for Ukraine and loosen rules of engagement with Western supplied weapons. Dropping Kharkiv forecast from 2 to 1, less based on the strike today than on Russia's continuing losses in the Kharkiv region. Missile strike: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/D7r3TQcCFjM