INFER Public

Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2021 06:39AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2021 12:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 7,500		Answer was incorrect
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500		Answer was incorrect
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500		Answer was incorrect
More than 13,500		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 03:36PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was correct
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7.5%		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2021 08:54AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion		Answer was correct
More than $775 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2021 08:55AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2022 06:23AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 33.0		Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5		Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0		Answer was incorrect

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2022 07:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 06:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Jul 15, 2022 11:42AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2022 11:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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