45th
Accuracy Rank

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis

-0.00217

Relative Brier Score

140

Forecasts

221

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 7 33 435 140 461
Comments 2 19 719 187 738
Questions Forecasted 6 14 35 19 40
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 34 879 221 891
 Definitions
New Prediction
New Prediction

Hamas has (surprisingly, according to observers) accepted a ceasefire proposal by Egypt and Qatar, which, according to Netanyahu, is "far from meeting Israel's demands"; nevertheless, he is dispatching a delegation to Cairo for further talks.

Matthew Miller, the US state department spokesperson, said Washington would discuss the Hamas response with its allies in the coming hours, and a deal was “absolutely achievable”. The diplomatic pressures to Israel to accept the deal seem immense.

Ultranationalists in the Israeli cabinet oppose the deal, while families and supporters of Israeli hostages have been demonstrating to demand that Israel accepts the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/06/forcibly-displacing-rafah-civilians-would-be-war-france-warns-israel

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68967000

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Slight adjustment for passage of time

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Passage of time.

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New Prediction
ctsats
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-2%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
99% (+2%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024

Back to minimal non-zero...

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ctsats
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
5% (-5%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia

Returning to the baseline, after more recent updates:

Saudis push for ‘plan B’ that excludes Israel from key deal with US - The Guardian, May 1, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel

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earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
ctsats
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (+1%)
Kuwait
1% (+1%)
Oman
1% (+1%)
Qatar
10% (+9%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (+1%)
Tunisia

Updating, after recent updates regarding KSA:

Report: Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel - JNS, Apr 30, https://www.jns.org/report-saudi-arabia-has-decided-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/

Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel and is debating the timing of the announcement, a foreign diplomat familiar with the details told Haaretz on Monday.

According to the source cited in the article by the daily’s diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Lis, Riyadh is discussing whether to make the move in the coming weeks or after the U.S. presidential election this November, in which either Democrat Joe Biden will continue to lead the country or his challenger Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House.

“The question is when, and the decision on the timing should be made within days,” the diplomat said.

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ctsats
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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ctsats
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Apr 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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