Passage of time.
-0.00217
Relative Brier Score
138
Forecasts
219
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 13 | 33 | 433 | 138 | 459 |
Comments | 6 | 18 | 721 | 186 | 737 |
Questions Forecasted | 12 | 14 | 35 | 19 | 40 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 33 | 877 | 219 | 889 |
Definitions |
Back to minimal non-zero...
Returning to the baseline, after more recent updates:
Saudis push for ‘plan B’ that excludes Israel from key deal with US - The Guardian, May 1, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel
Active Forecaster
Updating, after recent updates regarding KSA:
Report: Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel - JNS, Apr 30, https://www.jns.org/report-saudi-arabia-has-decided-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/
Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel and is debating the timing of the announcement, a foreign diplomat familiar with the details told Haaretz on Monday.
According to the source cited in the article by the daily’s diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Lis, Riyadh is discussing whether to make the move in the coming weeks or after the U.S. presidential election this November, in which either Democrat Joe Biden will continue to lead the country or his challenger Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House.“The question is when, and the decision on the timing should be made within days,” the diplomat said.
Star Commenter - Apr 2024
Lowering with time.
Slight adjustment for passage of time