Passage of time.
-0.477182
Relative Brier Score
459
Forecasts
889
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 33 | 433 | 138 | 459 |
| Comments | 6 | 18 | 718 | 186 | 737 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 14 | 35 | 19 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 33 | 877 | 219 | 889 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-1%)
Yes
83%
(+1%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
99%
(+2%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
Back to minimal non-zero...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
5%
(-5%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Returning to the baseline, after more recent updates:
Saudis push for ‘plan B’ that excludes Israel from key deal with US - The Guardian, May 1, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Kuwait
1%
(+1%)
Oman
1%
(+1%)
Qatar
10%
(+9%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(+1%)
Tunisia
Updating, after recent updates regarding KSA:
Report: Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel - JNS, Apr 30, https://www.jns.org/report-saudi-arabia-has-decided-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/
Saudi Arabia has decided to normalize relations with Israel and is debating the timing of the announcement, a foreign diplomat familiar with the details told Haaretz on Monday.
According to the source cited in the article by the daily’s diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Lis, Riyadh is discussing whether to make the move in the coming weeks or after the U.S. presidential election this November, in which either Democrat Joe Biden will continue to lead the country or his challenger Republican Donald Trump will return to the White House.“The question is when, and the decision on the timing should be made within days,” the diplomat said.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Apr 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
Lowering with time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Slight adjustment for passage of time