Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 10:18AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 10:18AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 0% | 5% | -5% | -4% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 99% | 94% | +5% | +4% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | 55% | +8% | +0% |
| No | 37% | 45% | -8% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 13% | -12% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 87% | +12% | +2% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:15PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 80% | 0% | +1% |
| No | 20% | 20% | 0% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 08:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 07:36PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 01, 2024 07:36PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 99% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +0% |