Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 04:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 24, 2022 04:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was correct | |||
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
As of Feb 19, 2023 12:07AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 19, 2023 12:07AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 19, 2023 12:07AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||||
Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?
As of Mar 16, 2023 03:23PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2023 03:23PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Feb 16, 2023 03:23PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||||
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2023 01:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 09, 2023 01:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2023 01:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 09, 2023 01:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2023 10:56PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 23, 2023 10:56PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 4 million | Answer was correct | |||
| More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 6 million | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 27, 2023 11:30PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2023 01:50AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Oct 24, 2023 01:50AM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2023 06:09PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Nov 19, 2023 06:09PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was correct | |||
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2023 04:48PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Nov 27, 2023 04:48PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 12% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 12% but less than 17% | Answer was incorrect | |||
| More than or equal to 17% but less than 22% | Answer was correct | |||
| More than or equal to 22% | Answer was incorrect | |||