INFER Public

Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2022 09:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, for both manufacturing and design		Answer was incorrect
Yes, for only manufacturing		Answer was correct
Yes, for only design		Answer was incorrect
No		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Jul 30, 2022 09:52PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2022 09:52PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2022 09:53PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
No, $0 appropriated		Answer was incorrect
More than $0 but less than $1 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $2 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $2 billion but less than $2.5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to $2.5 billion		Answer was correct

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Aug 31, 2022 07:07PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2022 07:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Sep 30, 2022 11:18PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2022 11:18PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2022 12:26AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1		Answer was incorrect
2		Answer was incorrect
3		Answer was incorrect
4 or lower		Answer was correct

Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2022 12:27AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2022 03:25AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%		Answer was correct
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 15%		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2022 03:38AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $320 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $320 billion but less than or equal to $350 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $350 billion and $380 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $380 billion and $410 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $410 billion		Answer was correct

Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2022 03:41AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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