INFER Public

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2021 01:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before February 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2021 10:45PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2021 03:57PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 11, 2021 01:36AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $470 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion		Answer was correct

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2021 07:55PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2021 07:57PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2021 08:01PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than 80%		Answer was correct

Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2021 08:03PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 07:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $5 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion		Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 07:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was correct
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7.5%		Answer was incorrect

magicftl

About: